As reviews began rolling in Tuesday morning, concern is expected to ripple through The Walt Disney Company and its Lucasfilm division as executives prepare for opening weekend box office results. The film marks a key moment for Lucasfilm, which is navigating a major leadership transition under Disney’s evolving studio structure.
The review embargo lifted early Tuesday, and initial reactions have been sharply divided. The Independent ran with a blistering headline declaring, “Stick a fork in Star Wars. It’s done,” while The Times of London questioned, “Would someone please put Star Wars out of its misery?” Meanwhile, Vulture described the film as “drab and stone-faced to a fault,” criticizing its “lifeless performances” and sluggish tone.
Not all reviews were negative. The Post and Variety offered more measured responses. The Post’s Johnny Oleksinski called it “an elongated and beefed-up episode of television” that is “likable enough,” while Variety’s Owen Gleiberman described it as “nothing more (or less) than a couple of likable, diverting, semi-forgettable episodes jammed together.”
Following the underwhelming performance of earlier franchise entries like “Solo” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” there is significant pressure on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’s broader cinematic legacy as the franchise returns to theaters for the first time in seven years.
The project arrives during a period of internal transition, with Disney executive Josh D’Amaro and new Lucasfilm leadership under Dave Filoni and Lynwen Brennan shaping the next phase of the studio’s direction.
Pedro Pascal and Kathleen Kennedy attended the Sigourney Weaver Hand and Footprint Ceremony in Hollywood, California on May 15, 2026.
The original Star Wars trilogy helped cement Memorial Day weekend as the unofficial launchpad for summer blockbusters. Expectations for The Mandalorian and Grogu, based on the hit Disney+ series, are considerably more restrained this time around. Studio executives are now hoping for a modest profit and, at minimum, a smooth opening without major embarrassment.
A recent Fandango survey of thousands of moviegoers ranking the most anticipated films of the summer notably did not include “The Mandalorian & Grogu,” underscoring its muted pre-release buzz.
“It will be a stress test for the ‘Star Wars’ brand,” said box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. Early tracking suggests an opening weekend in the $80 million to mid-$90 million range—solid for most franchises, but underwhelming for a property as historically dominant as Star Wars.
For comparison, 2018’s “Solo: A Star Wars Story” opened to $84 million over the Memorial Day weekend and ultimately became a turning point for the franchise’s theatrical strategy. The film’s performance prompted Bob Iger and The Walt Disney Company to reconsider their aggressive plan to release annual Star Wars films, which had aimed to replicate the success of Marvel Studios.
Iger later acknowledged that the rapid release schedule—coming just six months after “The Last Jedi”—raised concerns that the franchise may have been overexposed, ultimately forcing a strategic reset for the galaxy far, far away.
The Mandalorian star Grogu appears in a scene from Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu.
“We’re going to make sure when we make one, it’s the right one. So we’re being very careful there,” he said at an investor conference in 2023, reflecting a cautious approach to the future of the Star Wars film slate.
“There’s been just this feeling of disappointment and almost … not anger, but very critical feedback about the creative direction Star Wars has taken over the past few years,” box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian noted.
At a Sunday screening for crew members on Disney’s Burbank lot, Dave Filoni and Lynwen Brennan delivered a recorded message thanking the team and highlighting that the film is the first Star Wars movie shot entirely in California.
The production also benefited from a $21.8 million California tax credit. With a reported $165 million budget, the film is positioned as one of the more cost-efficient Star Wars entries in recent years—cheaper than 2005’s Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith—potentially lowering its break-even threshold compared to recent franchise installments.
Dergarabedian is now watching second-weekend performance closely. “If it drops 55% that would actually be a really good result … but if it drops like 70%, that’s the measure of non-success,” he said.
The film also arrives during a transitional moment for Lucasfilm, following the departure of longtime president Kathleen Kennedy. Her exit marks the end of a defining era for the studio, which faced increasing scrutiny over several stalled or underperforming Star Wars projects.
Even by Lucasfilm standards, secrecy around the project has been unusually tight. One source claimed the marketing team had limited time with the finished film, complicating campaign planning. “It seemed like they kept it under wraps until very late in the game,” the source said.
As a result, early promotion has leaned heavily on Grogu’s popularity, with the character appearing across a wide range of merchandise tie-ins—from Bath & Body Works products to Nilla Wafers collaborations, Pop Mart collectibles, and even branded grooming items.
Looking ahead, the future of the Star Wars film slate remains largely undefined. Beyond next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter from Shawn Levy and Ryan Gosling, Lucasfilm leadership has yet to outline a detailed long-term strategy, though further announcements could arrive at D23 or Star Wars Celebration.
