Upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead over other Republicans in a hypothetical primary to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul next year, according to a new poll.
The survey of 1,108 likely Republican voters, conducted by the firm co/efficient, found that 64% would back Stefanik. In comparison, only 8% would support Hudson Valley Rep. Michael Lawler, while 6% favored Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. The remaining 22% are either undecided or prefer another candidate as the 2026 gubernatorial race approaches.
“Among the leading contenders, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is both widely recognized and well-liked,” said co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce. “In recent years, Stefanik has become a prominent figure in statewide and national politics, symbolizing change for New York.”
Still, Munce expressed surprise at Stefanik’s commanding 56-point lead over Michael Lawler, a popular lawmaker and emerging GOP star.
“If I had to place my bets, I expected Lawler to be polling in the mid-20s percent,” Munce told The Post.
“Usually, this early in an election cycle, many voters remain undecided, waiting to see who else might enter the race,” the pollster added. “But in New York today, that’s not the case. Voters have largely made up their minds, and Elise Stefanik appears all but certain to be the Republicans’ choice to challenge for governor.”
While Stefanik, Lawler, and Blakeman are all considering a run against the Democratic incumbent, no official campaigns have launched yet.
Rep. Mike Lawler finished a distant second in the poll.
Stefanik, who was first elected to the House in 2014, enjoys significantly higher name recognition and favorability among Republican voters than Lawler or Blakeman, the poll reveals.
Sixty-four percent of Republicans view Stefanik favorably, while 11% hold an unfavorable opinion, and 24% either have no opinion or are unfamiliar with her.
In contrast, only 25% of Republicans have a favorable view of Lawler, 9% view him unfavorably, and a striking 66% are unsure or unfamiliar with him.
Blakeman’s numbers are even lower, with 17% viewing him favorably, 11% unfavorably, and 72% uncertain or unaware, according to the survey.
Rep. Mike Lawler finished a distant second in the poll.
Munce credited part of Stefanik’s advantage to her role as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, which has boosted her national profile over several years.
She was also nominated to be President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but the nomination was withdrawn earlier this year so Trump could retain her crucial vote in Congress, where the GOP holds a razor-thin majority.
Additionally, Stefanik gained attention for her prominent role questioning Ivy League college presidents during congressional hearings.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman received 6% support in the gubernatorial poll.
Munce attributed much of Stefanik’s lead to her role as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, which has given her a higher national profile after several years in leadership.
She was also nominated to be President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but the nomination was withdrawn earlier this year amid concerns that her vote was crucial in Congress, where the GOP holds a razor-thin majority.
Stefanik has also gained attention for her prominent role questioning Ivy League college presidents about anti-Israel protests and rising antisemitism on campus.
Another recent poll suggested that Lawler may have a stronger chance than Stefanik at defeating Gov. Hochul in the general election.
Last month, Trump hinted he might be leaning toward endorsing Stefanik by posting an unsolicited endorsement of Lawler’s congressional re-election campaign on TruthSocial—even though Lawler has yet to announce his plans for 2026.
Two weeks ago, Lawler made a tour upstate, visiting six counties and meeting with more than a dozen county GOP committee chairs, elected officials, and other party supporters.
Several local Republican leaders who met with Lawler expressed willingness to support him if he decides to challenge Gov. Hochul next year.
A Harper Polling survey found that Lawler — who represents the competitive 17th Congressional District, covering Rockland, Putnam, and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties — could have a better chance of defeating Hochul than Stefanik, whose 21st District is in the North Country near Vermont and Canada.
Lawler’s team responded to the GOP primary poll by asserting on Sunday that he is the stronger general election candidate.
“The real race is against Kathy Hochul, and the data universally shows that Mike Lawler is the only Republican who can beat her and actually win the governorship,” Lawler campaign spokesman Chris Russell said.
Elected to Congress in 2022, Lawler has been an outspoken critic of the controversial congestion pricing toll for Manhattan and has pushed to increase the state and local tax deduction on federal returns, which was capped during Trump’s first term.
Munce expects that Stefanik, Lawler, or even a generic Republican would perform well against Hochul, given the governor’s lackluster approval ratings in recent polls.
The co/efficient survey, conducted from June 18 to 20 through mobile texts and landline interviews, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.76 percentage points.
